Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
YX 4616 · BOS → BUF
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 24%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.