Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4616 · BOS → BUF
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BUF that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
BUF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.