Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4671 LANDED 7:27 AM ET, ~187 MIN EARLY

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4671 · JFK → DCA

took off 6:45 AM ET · landed 7:27 AM ET (scheduled 9:30 AM ET → 10:59 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4671 · JFK → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?