YX 4673 · LGA → RIC

took off 5:03 PM ET · landed 5:59 PM ET (scheduled 4:57 PM ET → 6:41 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RIC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4673 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late did it get to RIC?