Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4679
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4679 · DCA → PVD
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PVD at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.