Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
YX 4692 · BOS → MSN
departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 467 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSN that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 467 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.