Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4692 · BOS → MSN
departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 10:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 27%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MSN that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.