Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4695 LANDED 7:38 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4695 · DCA → IND

took off 6:17 AM ET · landed 7:38 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4695 · DCA → IND

Odds over time