Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4716
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
YX 4716 · IND → BOS
departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 11:22 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 8%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.