Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4716
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 4716 · IND → BOS
departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 11:22 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.