Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4759 · ATL → ORD
departs 3:27 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 73%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 31%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
33%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 63% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.