YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

took off 10:24 AM ET · landed 11:56 AM ET (scheduled 10:15 AM ET → 12:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GRR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GRR that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

Odds over time

How late did it get to GRR?