Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4801 LANDED 6:19 PM ET, ~25 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

YX 4801 · DCA → PHL

took off 5:47 PM ET · landed 6:19 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4801 · DCA → PHL

Odds over time