YX 5592 · BOS → DCA

departs 10:20 AM ET · arrives 12:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5592 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?