Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5609 SCHEDULED

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

YX 5609 · BOS → LGA

departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 10:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5609 · BOS → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?