Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5609 · BOS → LGA
departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 10:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 26%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 30%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.