YX 5801 · BOS → CVG

departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5801 · BOS → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?