Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
YX 5801 · BOS → CVG
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 19%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at BOS that day
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.