Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5811 LANDED 7:42 AM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

YX 5811 · PWM → LGA

took off 6:42 AM ET · landed 7:42 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.07 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5811 · PWM → LGA

Odds over time