Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5817 LANDED 1:12 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 5817 · HXD → ATL

took off 12:25 AM CST · landed 1:12 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 33h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HXD is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

HXD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5817 · HXD → ATL

Odds over time