Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 5823 · PIT → JFK
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 11%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at PIT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.