YX 5843 · DCA → LGA

departs 6:17 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5843 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?