YX 5850 · MSN → LGA

took off 3:44 PM CT · landed 6:32 PM ET (scheduled 3:32 PM CT → 7:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSN that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.28 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5850 · MSN → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?