Schedule: FAA flight plans.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5876 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

YX 5876 · LGA → DCA

took off 8:18 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:51 PM ET → 6:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5876 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?