AA 1015 · DCA → BOS

departs 10:41 AM ET · arrives 12:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1015 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?