AA 1046 · MIA → ATL

departs 8:12 AM ET · arrives 10:14 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.66 in

ATL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1046 · MIA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?