Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1105 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1105 · LAS → MIA

departs 12:45 PM PT · arrives 8:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1105 · LAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?