AA 1161 · AUS → CLT

departs 4:46 PM CT · arrives 8:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

66% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
15%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,233 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ 4pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip2.00 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1161 · AUS → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?