Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 117 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 117 · JFK → LAX

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 117 · JFK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?