Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 117 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 117 · JFK → LAX

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 11:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,267 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 117 · JFK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?