Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1197 · PHX → SJC

departs 8:51 PM MT · arrives 10:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1197 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?