Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1349 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1349 · MIA → PHL

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.75 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1349 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?