Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1407 · AUS → PHL

departs 12:08 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.94 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1407 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?