Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1407 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1407 · AUS → PHL

departs 12:08 PM CT · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.57 in

PHL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1407 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?