AA 1409 · ORD → CLT

departs 1:21 PM CT · arrives 4:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CLT that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.89 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1409 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?