AA 1411 · CLT → BGR

departs 2:04 PM ET · arrives 4:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BGR?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into BGR at that hour are often late

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1411 · CLT → BGR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BGR?