AA 1481 · MSP → PHL

departs 6:01 AM CT · arrives 9:50 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1481 · MSP → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?