AA 1515 · STL → CLT

departs 6:47 AM CT · arrives 9:45 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,167 ft Visibility4.33333 mi Precip0.27 in

CLT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1515 · STL → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?