Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1538 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1538 · MIA → BOS

departs 12:42 PM ET · arrives 4:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.50 in

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1538 · MIA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?