Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1594 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 1594 · MIA → STL

departs 8:54 PM ET · arrives 10:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±10 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.64 in

STL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling567 ft Visibility3.33333 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1594 · MIA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?