Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

departs 3:24 PM MT · arrives 6:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?