Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

departs 3:24 PM MT · arrives 6:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?