AA 1766 · DFW → JFK

departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 2:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

79% chance · ±0 pts +38 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
29%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 2.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.95 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1766 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?