Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1766 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1766 · DFW → JFK

departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 2:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1766 · DFW → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?