Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1849 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 1849 · SFO → DFW

departs 11:24 AM PT · arrives 5:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±8 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1849 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?