Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1861 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1861 · CLT → FLL

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1861 · CLT → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?