Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1871 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1871 · MIA → PHL

departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.50 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1871 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?