AA 1921 · MIA → TPA

departs 8:48 PM ET · arrives 9:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip1.25 in

TPA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1921 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?