AA 1936 · ORD → EWR

departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.90 in

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1936 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?