Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1936 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1936 · ORD → EWR

departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 4:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1936 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?